Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 824 AM EDT Mon Sep 28 2015 Valid 00Z Tue Sep 29 2015 - 00Z Tue Oct 06 2015 As Tropical Storm Niala marches southwestward farther and farther away from Hawai'i in the coming days, the weather across the state should be fair for a change, with only the garden-variety showers largely linked to the terrain. By the weekend, much rides upon how, when, and where the southern edge of the polar westerlies buckle to the north of the state. The latest ECMWF recurves a robust Niala into the northern islands a week from now, with the GFS spinning up a series of menacing tropical circulations astride 15N. Five-day QPF totals through 00Z October 4 are generally under a tenth of an inch away from the terrain, with perhaps a couple inches in the usual hot spots like Mauna Loa. Cisco