Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 802 AM EDT Fri Oct 09 2015 Valid 00Z Sat Oct 10 2015 - 00Z Sat Oct 17 2015 In most ways the forecast remains little changed from yesterday. Early in the period east-west oriented high pressure to the north of the state will support light to moderate trades. Initially light windward shower activity may be enhanced from Fri night through the weekend as a band of greater deep moisture, denoted in model guidance by precipitable water values in the 2-2.25 inch range, passes over the islands from southeast to northwest. Guidance continues to show the state being brushed by the southern periphery of an amplifying/sharpening trough aloft around Tue-Wed. Spread is similar to yesterday with the operational 00z ECMWF on the more progressive side and 00z GEFS mean on the slow/elongated side though not to the extent of the 00z CMC mean. 00z/06z GFS runs are more in the middle with the 06z version faster and more open aloft. Given the lack of convergence in solutions relative to 24 hours ago, continue to prefer an intermediate approach as per the 00z ECMWF mean or a slightly weaker version of a 00z/06z GFS compromise. This system aloft will lead to the arrival of a surface front over the islands and disruption of trade flow. Behind the front expect a drying trend with brisk winds generally from the north. Rausch