Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
818 AM EDT Sun Oct 18 2015

Valid 00Z Mon Oct 19 2015 - 00Z Mon Oct 26 2015

Weak upper ridging over the area will mostly hold through the next
week, thought the upper high will be located just west of the
Dateline. Models and ensembles remain in good agreement through
the end of the week. Precipitable water values are forecast to
lower though tomorrow/Monday before another modest surge in
moisture flows through the region Tues/Wed with another decrease
later this week. QPF from the models/ensembles was generally light
outside favored windward/terrain areas. By the end of the period,
the ECMWF and its ensemble mean show sfc high pressure farther NW
than the GFS/Canadian ensembles north of 30N due to a large
disagreement in the North Pacific flow.

In addition, the National Hurricane Center is monitoring Tropical
Storm Olaf well east of the islands -- just west of 130W. The
forecast takes this system past 140W in five days, a bit farther
west than yesterday, but is still likely to turn northward and
then northeastward away from Hawai'i. Please consult the NHC for
the latest information.


Fracasso