Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
811 AM EDT Wed Oct 21 2015

Valid 00Z Thu Oct 22 2015 - 00Z Thu Oct 29 2015

The 21/00Z ECMWF/GFS/Canadian deterministic solutions were decent
pieces of guidance for the surface to 500mb layer through 84
hours---
across the Hawai'i forecast region.

Around the 25/12Z time frame (Sunday)---and continuing through
28/00Z (Friday)---the significant differences between these 3
deterministic model solutions have downstream impacts. In terms of
'probability of occurrence'---the 21/00z deterministic GFS
appeared to be the least likely conclusion with the remnants of
'Olaf'.

Like yesterday---would defer the medium range portion of the
forecast to a blend of the ensemble forecast means. In today's
case---the 21/00Z ECENS/NAEFS offered the best mass field
consistency across the entire Pacific basin.

For the latest information concerning Hurricane 'Olaf'---please
refer to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC).

Vojtesak