Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
816 AM EDT Wed Oct 28 2015

Valid 00Z Thu Oct 29 2015 - 00Z Thu Nov 05 2015

Initially moderate to brisk easterly trades should begin to turn a
little southeasterly as supporting high pressure settles over the
eastern Pacific for the latter half of the week.  Winds should
gain a further southerly component by the weekend as an amplifying
trough aloft/embedded closed low encourage the strengthening of a
wavy front to the northwest of the state.  The upper system and
associated surface wave should eject northeastward around Mon but
upstream energy amplifying into the mean trough position should
maintain the surface front to some extent.  Among current
models/ensemble means, GFS/GEFS runs are a bit faster to eject the
weekend system and the 00z GFS is particularly progressive with
the trailing shortwave next Wed.

Into Fri the best deep moisture and associated showers should
linger near the Big Island, lifting northwestward thereafter.  The
weekend and early next week should see the best focusing of
moisture over the western and possibly central islands, with some
bands of enhanced rainfall possible.  Expect drier air to begin
moving in from the east by next Tue-Wed.

Rausch