Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
725 AM EST Sun Nov 08 2015

Valid 00Z Mon Nov 09 2015 - 00Z Mon Nov 16 2015

The 8/00Z forecast cycle did not offer any surprises --- and a
persistence-type forecast (from a sensible weather viewpoint)
seems in order. A ridge of high pressure in the central and east
central Pacific should remain anchored between 30N and 40N with a
rather steady east-northeast tradewind flow that remains gusty at
times. 

By the mid-week period (11/12Z) --- deterministic guidance
suggests an acceleration of the Subtropical Jet over Hawai'i and
downstream into the Mainland (southern California coast). This
upper-level feature may generate more mid-level cloud cover and
variable weather conditions at the highest elevations.

For day 6-7 (and beyond), a distinct split-flow pattern emerges
downstream over the Mainland, with Hawai'i settled beneath an
expanding Subtropical Jet axis and broad ridging providing
separation from an active Polar Jet to its immediate north along
45N-50N. The ensembles are quite varied with respect to what sort
of amplitude "shakes out" long term across the central Pacific,
and is grappling with the outcome of the first Arctic outbreak of
the season across Alaska and the Aleutians.

Vojtesak