Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
730 AM EST Wed Nov 11 2015

Valid 00Z Thu Nov 12 2015 - 00Z Thu Nov 19 2015

The latest models and ensembles still reasonably agree that
surface based high pressure reinforcing to the north and northeast
of the state should support brisk island trades into next week.
Flow predictability remains above normal given low forecast spread
and run-run guidance consistency.

A preferred GFS/ECMWF composite has good ensemble support and
favors a pattern with mainly windward based showers. Showers will
be limited by weakening support aloft, but may benefit from some
moisture pooling over the next few days with approach of a
weakening old boundary. However, The GFS/ECMWF do agressively
develop an amplified mid-upper level trough to the NNW of the
state early to mid next week whose associated surface frontal
system approach toward the islands and backing trades could result
in a much more moist and wet flow pattern.

Schichtel