Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
708 AM EST Thu Nov 12 2015

Valid 00Z Fri Nov 13 2015 - 00Z Fri Nov 20 2015

From now through the weekend expect trade winds to be brisk as one
surface high to the north/northeast of the islands is replaced by
another high of similar strength.  Showers should favor windward
terrain though occasionally may reach other locales as well. 

From Mon onward winds should weaken somewhat with the combination
of high pressure settling over the eastern Pacific and upper
troughing to the northwest of the state helping to push a front
closer to the northwestern islands.  There are some noticeable
differences with the eastward progression of this front, with the
00z ECMWF mean in particular showing a slower solution than most
other guidance.  Thus would initially suggest a compromise among
recent ECMWF/GFS/GEFS mean runs.  Among this cluster there is
reasonable agreement upon higher precipitable water values moving
in from the east around next Wed-Thu so lingering shower activity
may increase a little in that time frame.  At the moment guidance
signals are not too pronounced for rainfall with the approaching
front but this will have to be monitored in future runs.

Rausch