Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 702 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2015 Valid 00Z Mon Nov 16 2015 - 00Z Mon Nov 23 2015 For yet another day the models and ensemble means display similarities for the overall evolution during the next week but also for differences in the details. Brisk trades should continue through the first part of the week around the southwestern periphery of strong eastern Pacific high pressure. By midweek expect winds to be somewhat weaker and turn southeasterly as an upper trough pushes a front and associated band of enhanced moisture toward but not quite to the northwestern islands. Showers should tend to be on the lighter side with precipitable water values generally in the 1-1.25 inch range. In principle the forecast is still on track for a surge of moisture to reach the islands from the southeast during the latter half of the week and persist through the weekend. ECMWF timing of this surge continues to be at least 12 hours slower than GFS runs but the EC has at least trended toward the GFS runs that have been advertising maximum PWATs of at least 2.25 inches. EC/EC mean runs continue to extend upper troughing farther southeastward than most other guidance, today including the UKMET. This could still be restraining the northwestward extent of enhanced deep moisture in the EC but on the other hand may ultimately lead to a more focused band of moisture for a time. Thus confidence in the general idea of enhanced rainfall potential late week into the weekend is much higher than the details of coverage/intensity/location of heaviest activity, favoring an average of available solutions until there is better agreement. Rausch