Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
707 AM EST Sun Dec 06 2015

Valid 00Z Mon Dec 07 2015 - 00Z Mon Dec 14 2015

With high pressure residing over the eastern Pacific early in the
week, expect trades to be moderate to light and from the
east-southeast or southeast.  Then a surface high tracking north
of the state along or just north of 30N latitude on Wed should
lead to stronger easterly trades by mid-late week.  By next
weekend guidance begins to differ on the proximity of a front
approaching the islands from the northwest, due to differences in
handling of supporting shortwave energy.  At the moment there is a
pronounced majority model/ensemble cluster, including the 00z GEFS
mean, suggesting the shortwave energy should be slower and/or less
amplified than the 00z-06z GFS runs.  This preferred scenario
aloft would hold the surface front farther to the northwest of the
islands with less disruption of trades.  Showers should be mostly
on the lighter side through the period with precipitable water
values in the 0.75-1 inch range at most times.  There may be some
sea breeze focus early in the week when trades are lighter but
otherwise activity should tend to favor windward locations.

Rausch