Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
701 AM EST Thu Jan 07 2016

Valid 00Z Fri Jan 08 2016 - 00Z Fri Jan 15 2016

For the next week expect a series of fronts to push toward and in
some cases into the islands as multiple systems are carried along
within progressive mid-latitude Pacific flow.  There is good
model/ensemble mean consensus for the existence of each front with
some modest spread developing for timing/southward extent by the
latter half of the forecast period.

The first approaching front will reach the state later today and
quickly return northward ahead of the next front that should
arrive around Sat.  This second front should be stronger and push
farther southeastward than the first.  Another front should
approach Mon-Mon night but will likely stall out just north of the
islands.  Then expect the final front of the forecast period to
approach next Thu.

Latest GFS/ECMWF runs generally show precipitable water values
remaining within the 0.75-1.25 inch range for the next week.  The
06z GFS/00z ECMWF downplay the potential rise in PWATs seen in the
00z GFS run next Wed-Thu.  Thus expect most shower activity to be
scattered and light, with variable focus due to the series of
fronts not allowing trades to become established to any meaningful
extent.

Rausch