Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 710 AM EST Sat Jan 09 2016 Valid 00Z Sun Jan 10 2016 - 00Z Sun Jan 17 2016 Systems carried along by fast mid-latitude Pacific flow will bring a series of fronts toward the northern islands during the period. This pattern will lead to variable conditions and prevent the establishment of trade flow except for perhaps a period of time over the Big Island which will be a little farther removed from the fronts. The first front is already moving into the state and will remain over the area into Sun before dissipating or lifting to the north in response to the next system whose front should approach the area but not reach as far south as the first front. It is in the Mon-Tue period when model guidance begins to stray apart regarding timing/southward extent of fronts. In general the 00z/06z GFS runs become faster than most other solutions, leading to a preference toward the 00z ECMWF and GEFS/ECMWF means for forecast details. Based on the guidance comparison, would expect precipitable water values to remain somewhat higher than in GFS runs in the Sun-Mon night time frame. Still PWATs should tend to meander on either side of one inch at most times, possibly reaching higher values over the northwestern islands late in the week with another approaching front. Relatively modest PWATs at most times should lead to any shower activity being on the light side, and generally with more focus along land/sea breeze boundaries given the relative lack of trade flow. Rausch