Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
710 AM EST Sun Jan 10 2016

Valid 00Z Mon Jan 11 2016 - 00Z Mon Jan 18 2016

The Big Island may be close to the northern periphery of more
stable trades from Tue onward but otherwise expect variable winds
with fast mid-latitude Pacific flow bringing a rapid succession of
fronts close to and in some cases possibly reaching the northern
islands.

An initial front near/northeast of the area is in the process of
dissipating/lifting away.  Behind this front precipitable water
values should reach their minimum for the period, as low as the
0.75-1.00 inch range over the northwestern islands into Mon.  The
next two fronts should reach only as far south as 24-25N latitude
as of late Mon-early Tue and late Tue-early Wed.  Another front
approaching late in the week will likely be stronger and reach
farther southeastward, with both GFS and ECMWF runs showing the
associated band of higher moisture reaching the northwestern
islands.  The 00z-06z GFS runs are about 12 hours faster though. 
Current model/ensemble majority cluster including the 00z GEFS
mean would recommend leaning more toward the slower timing. 
Slightly faster movement than this cluster could be possible given
the overall progressive pattern.  This front may bring a modest
enhancement of rainfall to the northern islands around Fri-Fri
night along with a brief period of northeasterly winds.  Guidance
expects the next front in the series to approach over the weekend.
   

Rausch