Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
719 AM EST Thu Jan 14 2016

Valid 00Z Fri Jan 15 2016 - 00Z Fri Jan 22 2016

Through day6, the 14/00Z deterministic GFS/ECMWF run and their
means have a very good handle on the anticipated Pacific flow
regime during this particular 10-day cycle.  And nothing in the
14/00z cycle seems to be out of line with the current Hawai'i
forecasts.

Between 18/12Z and 20/00Z --- the shortwave details invof 30N 170W
continue to display subtle differences but seem to be in better
agreement today with respect to forward speed. The projected
'baseline' for this east-southward progression of the 500mb trough
is depicted by the ECMWF --- and as a weaker solution (both aloft
and at the surface) versus the 14/00Z GFS/Canadian. These 2
solutions (14/00Z GFS and Canadian) --- contain the more organized
and aggressive frontal passage solutions.

In the big scheme of things and outside of the day5-6 shortwave
--- little change is expected through day 7 with the anticipated
Pacific flow regime across Hawai'i. The preferred solution at day
7 ---especially for the mid-latitude north Pacific --- Alaska
downwind to the Mainland looks to be a 60/40 blend of 14/00Z
ECENS/NAEFS. Likewise, this should be a reasonable solution for
the Subtropical Pacific.

Vojtesak