Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
725 AM EST Fri Jan 15 2016

Valid 00Z Sat Jan 16 2016 - 00Z Sat Jan 23 2016

Thought the 15/00Z ECENS mean and its deterministic run maintains
the best continuity through the forecast period. This
deterministic solution anchors another deep vertically-stacked
cyclone invof 52N 145W and leans a bit closer to the GFS/Canadian
from previous runs---for a slighter stronger surface front to
migrate across the western portion of the state.

Beyond day 5, using more ECENS mean versus deterministic ECMWF
appears to be a good 'placeholder' for the deep cyclone emerging
off the coast of Japan. That said, looks like a slightly drier and
cooler mid-latitude airmass (in modified form) does reach the
forecast area and begins to generate a freshening northeast
tradewind breeze in its wake.

Vojtesak