Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 728 AM EST Mon Jan 18 2016 Valid 00Z Tue Jan 19 2016 - 00Z Tue Jan 26 2016 The 18/00Z GFS/ECMWF solutions and their ensemble means looked to be in better than average agreement across nearly all of the Pacific. There was very little difference between the solutions offered and the current 7-day Hawai'i forecast. Shorter-term forecast concerning the next surface front migration for the forecast area on beginning around the 20/12z time frame--- The 18/00Z deterministic ECMWF is a tad stronger and more progressive with the surface high and frontal passage respectively---allowing the frontal passage to spread through the entire state ---from northwest to southeast. The GFS is a weaker solution with the front and surface high --- with the current Hawai'i forecast and philosophy looks reasonable --- a middle ground approach. Downstream, not much difference between these solutions through day 4 (Friday) in the northeast Pacific---and a 1020mb -ish high near 27N 155W --- should regenerate more of a seasonal northeast tradewind flow. For day 5 and beyond--- have used the ECENS approach with little regret in the north Pacific for the last 4-5 forecast shifts. It's solution across the northern Pacific has been very reliable. And the 18/00Z GEFS was 'use-able' too. Recommend a 70/30 ratio of these two (ECENS/GEFS) to carry the forecast through the end of day 7. This should help follow the next mid-level trough migration between 170W and 150W next weekend. Vojtesak