Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
705 AM EST Mon Feb 01 2016

Valid 00Z Tue Feb 02 2016 - 00Z Tue Feb 09 2016

Quiet patter the rest of the week over Hawai'i with generally
light showers in windward/terrain areas. Ensembles still indicate
an amplifying central/eastern Pacific upper pattern this weekend,
with strong troughing passing just to the northeast of the region.
This will drive a strong front through the entire island chain
with a much cooler airmass on sharp northerly winds. Recent
GFS/GEFS mean runs are a bit quicker with the front than the
ECMWF/ECENS means, but a compromise solution may be best at this
time given some uncertainty with the ridging downstream near the
CA/OR coast. Ensembles do not show much more than modest
precipitation with the front as the best support will be farther
northeast.


Fracasso