Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
727 AM EST Wed Feb 10 2016

Valid 00Z Thu Feb 11 2016 - 00Z Thu Feb 18 2016

At the start of the period, deep cyclonic flow anchors the higher
latitudes of the central Pacific with a surface boundary stalled
to the north of the Hawai`ian island chain. Models agree heights
will rise in response to the next amplifying trough with a 588-dm
ridge setting up for the Friday to Sunday time period. Moving into
next week, a pair of features peel off the prevailing westerlies
with a pronounced upper low drifting westward in the vicinity of
20N/135W. The 00Z ECMWF/ECMWF ensemble mean has tended to be
closer to the islands than other solutions. To the west, an
evolving feature migrates eastward from near the International
Dateline with Hawai`i generally sandwiched between these two
systems. General model agreement exists with a closed low and some
sort of elongated mid-latitude trough crossing the region.

Looking to the surface, a return to the easterly trades will take
shape into the weekend as a ridge builds over the eastern Pacific.
By Sunday afternoon, general troughing in the mid-latitudes should
allow a frontal zone to progress toward Kauai. This system should
gradually shear as a pronounced surface high builds over the
mid-latitudes east of the dateline. Models show moderate/strong
northeasterly flow impinging on the entire region with 30 knots of
sustained wind possible by Tuesday. Regarding precipitation, trade
wind driven showers will be possible while an additional threat is
likely over the northern most islands as the front sags southward.

Rubin-Oster