Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
712 AM EST Tue Feb 16 2016

Valid 00Z Wed Feb 17 2016 - 00Z Wed Feb 24 2016

Fairly quiet rest of the week for Hawai'i with generally light
windward showers and modest northeast breezes veering to easterly
later this week. Hi-res models show potential for locally higher
precip amounts with some showers spilling over to leeside areas
thanks to stronger trades than normal. By the weekend into next
week, ensembles still show good agreement on strong upper ridging
retrograding westward past the Dateline and expanding northward
which will allow troughing to dig right toward Hawai'i. At this
trajectory, it would keep the bulk of the precipitation to the
north and east of the region, per the ensembles. The 00Z GFS still
represents the quicker side of the ensemble spread and the
Canadian represents the slower side, while the 00Z ECMWF was just
a bit slower than the multi-center ensemble mean. Typically the
ECMWF ensemble mean does quite well with amplified patterns as its
deterministic counterpart can over-amplify, but the two seem
fairly close in their 00Z/126 runs.


Fracasso