Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
729 AM EST Thu Feb 25 2016

Valid 00Z Fri Feb 26 2016 - 00Z Fri Mar 04 2016

Guidance reasonably agrees that dynamic mid-upper level trough
energy is passing across and north of the state today. Satellite
imagery matches well with latest models and ensembles that
identifies an associated front is working its way across Kauai but
is expected to stall as mid-upper support ejects away from the
state. Guidance and blended precipitable water loops agree that
pooled moisture and showers with this feature will also be
enhanced with return flow of deeper moisture associated with a
lead front just to the southeast of the Big Island that
retrogrades into the state to combine to fuel a wet period with
some heavier local downpours today into early next week. The
possible approach of another well defined front from the northwest
with yet another amplified mid-upper level trough passage to the
north of the state may again act to enhance island moisture and
rainfall.  This front seems to have stronger support for passage
across the islands next Tuesday into Wednesday by which time
clearing skies and modest Trades are expected to establish by
Thursday.  This pattern has above normal predictability.

Schichtel/Kong