Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
708 AM EST Tue Mar 01 2016

Valid 00Z Wed Mar 02 2016 - 00Z Wed Mar 09 2016

Latest guidance shows better than average agreement for the next
seven days.  A cold front in the process of crossing the islands
will be followed by a brief period of brisk northerly winds into
Wed.  Winds will trend lighter as high pressure steadily
weakens/elongates just north-northwest of the state.  The next
front in the ongoing series should settle into the northern
islands by Sat.  High pressure tracking eastward to the north of
the front during the weekend should increase winds somewhat. 
Guidance expects the front to begin retreating Sun as another
front approaches from the northwest Mon-Tue.  What model
differences exist involve the two fronts this weekend and next
week, with latest GFS/GEFS mean runs somewhat farther
south/southeast than other guidance corresponding to slightly
lower heights aloft.  At this time an intermediate solution
appears reasonable for both fronts.

After passage of the initial front a lingering band of relatively
higher precipitable water values should favor greater chances for
showers over the Big Island versus other locations through late
week.  Light rainfall may accompany the weekend front dropping
into the northern islands.  Upper trough amplification supporting
next week's front to the northwest of the state should support
increased moisture that may edge into the northwestern islands by
next Tue, though ECMWF runs and to some extent the 00z GEFS mean
suggest that GFS runs could be a tad overdone with this moisture.

Rausch