Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
748 AM EDT Mon Mar 14 2016

Valid 00Z Tue Mar 15 2016 - 00Z Tue Mar 22 2016

Trades will gradually weaken over the next couple of days as
supporting high pressure shifts northeast of the state in response
to approach of an amplified mid-upper level trough from the
northwest. Moisture will gradually rebound into the state
underneath deep system passage centered north of the state
Tue/Wed. This forces a well defined trailing surface cold front
with organized showers through the islands. Expect a return of
generally moderate post-frontal trades and a pattern with more
limited windward terrain showers as supporting high pressure
bridges to the north of the state into the weekend. However,
moisture and some deeper showers may persist over the Big Island
closer to the stalling front. The high and trades may weaken into
next week with new system approach, but specifics are more
uncertain at these longer time frames. Otherwise, forecast spread
and uncertainty seems below normal in this weather pattern, so a
near composite of reasonably well clustered guidance solutions
still seems quite reasonable.

Schichtel