Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
758 AM EDT Sat Mar 19 2016

Valid 00Z Sun Mar 20 2016 - 00Z Sun Mar 27 2016

The model guidance shows excellent agreement with the Pacific
anticyclone north of Hawai'i this weekend.  Showers are primarily
expected in coastal areas where northeast flow comes onshore and
in windward terrain. Coverage is expected to be sparse given below
normal precipitable water values. The anticyclone moves east with
time, so by mid week the high is well northeast of the islands,
and a front slowly approaches from the west.

Moisture pooling along the front results in precipitable water
values reversing to above normal values, with frontal lift
providing enhanced chances of showers/thunderstorms at the end of
the week into next weekend.  With the frontal passage, drier air
is expected to return.

The models/ensembles start to spread on the timing of the frontal
departure with the 06z gfs the slowest of the solutions right now.
 With the 06z gefs mean faster than the gfs with next weekend's
frontal progression, a solution faster than the 06z gfs is
preferred, or closer tot he ecmwf/gefs mean.

Petersen