Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 815 AM EDT Wed Mar 23 2016 Valid 00Z Thu Mar 24 2016 - 00Z Thu Mar 31 2016 Ensembles show good agreement on the building omega block pattern developing in the northeastern Pacific next week. Western upper low/middle upper high/eastern upper low will lie along 175W/135W/115W, respectively, by next Wednesday per the ensemble consensus. The ECMWF ensembles were farther north with the upper high near the Alaska panhandle which allows more flow underneath, but the affects to Hawai'i are marginal among the ensembles given the lead time. Typically the ECMWF ensembles perform best with amplified flow but this may be 'over-amplified' by next week -- making the pattern breakdown evolution tricky to forecast. For the 50th state itself, upper troughing in the short term along with a stationary front to the NW of the region will push southeastward over the next few days, making for a wet period through the weekend. ECMWF ensembles were quicker to raise heights by Sunday than the GFS ensembles but the Canadian ensembles were quickest. Preference lies more toward the ECMWF than the GFS. 00Z/06Z parallel GFS runs were also as slow as the operational GFS. Ridging should build into the region early next week before the tail end of a front potentially pushes through, though the best support should lie to the northeast of the area. Winds would veer to northwestward then northward and northeastward post-FROPA next Tue into Wed. Fracasso