Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
813 AM EDT Sun Apr 03 2016

Valid 00Z Mon Apr 04 2016 - 00Z Mon Apr 11 2016

Guidance shows good agreement with most aspects of the forecast. 
There are some adjustments compared to yesterday but also less
spread toward the end of the period.

Winds will turn southeasterly early in the week as high pressure
continues to move into the eastern Pacific.  A cold front
supported by a fairly sharp upper trough is still scheduled to
pass through the islands from Tue into Tue night/early Wed, with
trailing high pressure bringing a brief period of strong
northerly-northeasterly winds into Wed.  Later in the week trades
will turn easterly and slacken with the weakening/departure of the
surface high.  Another front will likely approach and possibly
reach the state next weekend.  Today's models and ensemble means
show better agreement with the timing of this front.

Rainfall coverage and amounts may begin to increase early in the
week as precipitable water values increase somewhat, with the Tue
front providing some added focus.  Both GFS and ECMWF runs show
the lingering band of deep moisture associated with the front not
reaching as far south as in yesterday's forecasts.  As a result
rainfall may be more broadly distributed across the islands from
the latter half of the week into the weekend.  Also as trades
become lighter in that time frame there may be an increased sea
breeze focus for showers at some locations.

Rausch