Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
830 AM EDT Mon Apr 04 2016

Valid 00Z Tue Apr 05 2016 - 00Z Tue Apr 12 2016

At the start of the period, amplified flow across the
mid-latitudes will sweep weak height falls across Kauai with the
attendant cold front crossing much of the Hawai`ian island chain
Tuesday into Wednesday morning. Enhanced moisture accompanying
this baroclinic zone should spread showers from north to south as
noted in the consensus of solutions. In the wake of this system, a
strong area of high pressure building over the international
dateline will increase northeasterly flow across the region. Many
models show sustained winds in the 25 to 30 knot range with higher
gusts likely for mid-week. Winds will continue to veer in time as
the high pressure advances eastward with a return to the usual
trade wind regime for the remainder of the forecast period.
Overall, this will support diurnally forced showers and upslope
precipitation amidst a moisture rich air mass in excess of 1 inch
precipitable water values. Regarding the model differences, the
only solution which looked unreasonable was the 06Z GFS which was
much more progressive in the mid/high-latitudes which has
significant impacts on the overall pattern. However, these
differences still do not translate significantly to the state of
Hawai`i.


Rubin-Oster