Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 811 AM EDT Fri May 06 2016 Valid 00Z Sat May 07 2016 - 00Z Sat May 14 2016 Guidance maintains reasonable continuity with the forecast for the next seven days though with some lingering differences. The upper trough/closed low passing to the north of the state will push a front into the islands today. This front will likely stall near the Big Island. High pressure behind the front will support northeasterly winds over northwestern/central areas while the Big Island and vicinity will see more easterly flow at least into early next week. The front should lose definition with time but an axis of higher precipitable water values, 1.25-1.50 inches or so, should linger over the southeastern half of the state for a number of days. Stalling of the front and associated moisture band may support locally heavier rainfall at some locations, either from multi-day accumulation or occasionally more intense activity. By Wed-Fri there are still some differences aloft which impact the northern extent of the moisture axis. Around Wed-Thu the 00z/06z GFS runs extend upper troughing more southwestward toward the islands, pushing moisture somewhat southward of recent ECMWF runs. GEFS/NAEFS/ECMWF means support leaning away from the GFS aloft though the 00z GEFS still suppresses the moisture. By next Fri guidance expects some degree of height falls aloft but with no real consensus. The 06z GFS develops the lowest heights while the 00z NAEFS/ECMWF means maintain the highest heights, leaving the 00z GFS/GEFS mean/ECMWF in the middle. At the surface there is a better consensus among non-06z GFS solutions with slightly stronger trades than that run. Rausch