Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
741 AM EDT Thu May 19 2016

Valid 00Z Fri May 20 2016 - 00Z Fri May 27 2016

The 19/00Z ECMWF/GFS deterministic guidance---and their respective
ensemble packages 'mirror' the current Hawai'i forecast philosophy
until 26/12Z.

Where the 19/00Z cycle deterministic guidance varies and results
in a subtle impact on the Subtropical central Pacific---is tied to
a day 7 storm track over southwest Alaska and northern Gulf of
Alaska.

In short, a consensus approach will work through 25/12Z, then
steer (and or taper away) from the deterministic GFS by 26/12Z.
This philosophy would then incorporate more of a 60/20/20 ratio
(blend) of the 19/00Z ECENS, GEFS and deterministic ECMWF for day
7.

Vojtesak