Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
743 AM EDT Mon May 23 2016

Valid 00Z Tue May 24 2016 - 00Z Tue May 31 2016

Models and ensembles mainly agree on the Hawaiian flow pattern for
much of the week and a composite solution seems reasonable. High
pressure northeast of the state supports moderate to breezy trades
into Tue as a lingering weakness aloft and moisture fuels windward
showers. Troughing from the northwest midweek underneath a
deepened low passing north of the state supports more showers in
disrupted trade flow. Late week trades rebound as high pressure
re-establishes northeast of the islands. Forecast
spread/uncertainty increases by the weekend, but a common guidance
theme is the development of a potent trough/low and slow frontal
push to the state from the northwest. This disrupts trades and
increases potential for deeper moisture/convection.

Schichtel