Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 806 AM EDT Sun Jun 12 2016 Valid 00Z Mon Jun 13 2016 - 00Z Mon Jun 20 2016 Consolidation and strengthening of high pressure to the north of the islands along 40N latitude over the next couple days, and persistence of this high thereafter, will support strong trade winds for much of the week. Guidance agrees in principle that the high should begin weakening by Fri-Sun so trades will likely not be quite as strong in that time frame. Within a pattern that will favor greatest focus for precipitation over windward locations though with some activity elsewhere, the upper level weakness tracking westward over the islands over the next couple days will support best potential for enhanced rainfall during the period. GFS/ECMWF runs agree on precipitable water values reaching 1.50-1.75 inches in association with the upper feature and lingering in that range for another day or so after passage. Guidance anticipates somewhat lower PWATs late week into the weekend. Once again by 6-7 days out GFS/GEFS runs are somewhat more aggressive than other guidance with the southwestward elongation of eastern Pacific troughing over the region. The only notable effect at the surface shows up in the 06z GFS which has a weaker pressure gradient than consensus by next Sun. Rausch