Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
756 AM EDT Sat Jun 18 2016

Valid 00Z Sun Jun 19 2016 - 00Z Sun Jun 26 2016

Models and ensembles agree on placing Hawai'i in between a strong
upper high near 40N/160W and two upper lows to the NW and well to
the NE of the state near western North America. This leaves the
50th state on the edge between ridging from the north and weak
troughing to the east. Flow around the northern high will bring in
bouts of moisture with mostly light rain that may spill over to
leeward sides amid stronger trades earlier in the period. A model
compromise between the GFS/ECMWF and their ensembles seems
prudent. Pattern may break down by next weekend as the high
flattens and a more pronounced weakness aloft nudges toward
Hawai'i. Both the GFS and ECMWF show increased moisture by next
Fri-Sat but the ensembles were not as aggressive.


Fracasso