Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
809 AM EDT Wed Jul 06 2016

Valid 00Z Thu Jul 07 2016 - 00Z Thu Jul 14 2016

Models and ensembles show good agreement on shifting an upper
ridge/closed high from near 40N/160W back toward the western
Aleutians by next week, allowing an upper low to the east of
Hawai'i to retrograde westward toward to between 150-155W. The
ECMWF ensembles took this upper low a bit farther west than the
GEFS ensembles while the Canadian ensembles were still farther
east. Pattern may be complicated by the approaching but weakening
Hurricane Blas, forecast to pass west of 140W by late Sunday into
early Monday. Models/ensembles still split N-S at that point with
the GFS still to the north and the ECMWF to the south, but both
still east of 150W by next Wednesday. Compromise/blended solution
for the immediate Hawai'i area may be prudent.

Weakening surface high to the north will help to gradually
diminish trades by next week. Generally light to occasionally
moderate showers should be the rule with no forecast deep tropical
moisture tap.


Fracasso