Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
729 AM EDT Sun Jul 10 2016

Valid 00Z Mon Jul 11 2016 - 00Z Mon Jul 18 2016

The 10/00Z GFS/GEFS and ECENS/ECMWF maintained good run-to-run
continuity in the Subtropical east Pacific --- and through 15/12Z
--- were reasonable depictions of the synoptic-scale scenario
unfolding across the entire Pacific Basin.

The somewhat 'blocky' pattern between 20N and 30N (the two closed
lows invof 27N) will break down --- with the Agatha-infused TUTT
cell near 26N 148W --- lifting off to the northeast around/just
after 13/00Z. In some small way, remnants of Blas will help lift
this system northeastward.

Then challenges abound. Downstream over the Mainland as
entrainment with the departing closed low enters the mid-latitude
westerlies---and with Celia as it migrates west of 140W heading
into day 6. With respect to Celia --- the GFS maintains a more
organized system while the ECMWF weakens it over the weekend (days
6-7). A blend of the 10/00Z ECENS/GEFS means should serve as a
baseline after 15/12Z --- until the pattern settles down across
the mid-latitude Pacific.

Please refer to the NHC for official day 1-5 forecasts in the
tropical southeast Pacific.

Vojtesak