Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
802 AM EDT Sun Jul 17 2016

Valid 00Z Mon Jul 18 2016 - 00Z Mon Jul 25 2016

Winds will be on the light side early in the week as the surface
reflection that remains from Celia tracks a couple hundred miles
to the north of the islands.  As guidance has been indicating in
recent days, an area of enhanced deep moisture to the
south/southeast of the feature should cross the islands during
Sunday night-Wednesday.  The added moisture will increase the
potential for areas of heavier rainfall while the light winds may
allow sea breeze boundaries to help focus activity.  Still expect
trades to resume Wednesday onward with a pocket of drier air
passing over the state around Thursday.  Over the coming days
Hurricane Darby is forecast to weaken steadily with the 0900 UTC
National Hurricane Center advisory bringing the center to 18.9N
148.5W by 0600 UTC Friday.  After that time there is still some
degree of spread regarding the track of Darby with the majority
cluster drifting south of the state in contrast to the 00z ECMWF
that tracks to the Big Island.  Guidance continues to signal a
heavy rain threat and a period of enhanced winds with this system.
 Based on the current consensus track, windward terrain of the Big
Island would see the highest rainfall potential. 

Rausch