Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 829 AM EDT Sat Jul 23 2016 Valid 00Z Sun Jul 24 2016 - 00Z Sun Jul 31 2016 Tropical Storm Darby is now forecast by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)to directly impact the Big Island today and this more southward shifted track was favored by ensembles, especially ECMWF ensembles, over the past few days. Latest radar imagery shows Darby moving westward from a current position just to the southeast of the Big Island. The CPHC track subsequently tracks Darby as a tropical storm through the southern and central islands over the weekend and to the northwest near/just north of the western islands Monday, but ECMWF ensembles are still further south with their track. Darby has an analog perhaps closest to but northward shifted than Iselle 2014 that produced over 15" of rain over favored windward terrain of the Big Island, but a closer potential track to the central and southern islands could also result in greater amounts there compared to Iselle. Please refer to the latest products and warnings/advisories from CPHC and WFO Honolulu for this dangerous storm. Expect a return to a moderate to locally brisk trade wind pattern midweek through late next week in the wake of Darby as high pressure becomes restablished to the north of the islands. Showers should be mainly confined to favored windward terrain as fueled by lingering moisture associated with the heavy rainfall earlier week via Darby. Schichtel