Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
805 AM EDT Tue Aug 02 2016

Valid 00Z Wed Aug 03 2016 - 00Z Wed Aug 10 2016

Strong high pressure over the eastern half of the Pacific will
promote moderate to brisk trades through Friday, with terrain
focused showers which at times may stray to other locations. 
Latest GFS/ECMWF runs agree upon a pocket of greater deep moisture
crossing the islands around late Wednesday-Thursday.  This
moisture has its origins from tropical cyclone Frank, and may
serve to enhance rainfall during that time frame.  The next
feature of interest will be T.S. Howard which is forecast to
weaken to a remnant low by the time it approaches the state
Saturday.  The 0900 UTC National Hurricane Center advisory track
through 0900 UTC Sunday and extrapolation of model guidance beyond
that time would have the feature taking a path slightly north of
the islands.  This would carry the core of highest precipitable
water values and heaviest rainfall just to the north as well but
some increase in moisture over the islands may still be possible. 
Trades would likely weaken as the surface reflection passes by. 
Just beyond the end of the period next Tuesday a trailing
disturbance, currently expected to organize into a tropical
cyclone sometime within the next five days, may begin to come into
the picture with a farther southward track than Howard.

Rausch