Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
810 AM EDT Fri Aug 05 2016

Valid 00Z Sat Aug 06 2016 - 00Z Sat Aug 13 2016

Through day 5 (11/00Z) --- the 5/00Z ECENS/GEFS ensemble means and
their deterministic runs were in decent agreement concerning the
migratory storm track of the latest tropical disturbances (Howard
and Ivette). Please refer to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)
for the latest information concerning 'Ivette'.

Forecast challenge begins around 10/00Z trough pattern along 170W
begins to migrate eastward and a closed 500mb circulation emerges
invof 35N 150W (ECMWF) or 35N 154W (GFS). The strong southwesterly
shear should accomplish two things --- the first being to 'lop
off' the remaining the upper-level support to these two tropical
disturbances and (2), keep a moist mid-level west to southwest
flow pattern aloft along the western fringes of the forecast area.

But what remains of these tropical systems in the lowest levels
appears to be where where the 5/00Z ECMWF and GFS diverge ---
primarily between the 10/00Z and 11/00Z time frames. Recommend a
50/50 blend of the ECENS/GEFS means by 11/00Z --- until the
deterministic runs can come into better consensus for all of
Hawai'i.

Vojtesak