Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
755 AM EDT Wed Aug 24 2016

Valid 00Z Thu Aug 25 2016 - 00Z Thu Sep 01 2016

Ensembles were in good agreement on the overall upper pattern
across the north Pacific during the next week, showing a
retrogression of the upper ridge/closed high from the Gulf of
Alaska this week southwestward next week. Short-term heavy
rainfall threat will subside into Thursday from SE to NW over the
island chain as the PW plume diminishes and moves westward toward
a surface boundary well to the NW of the region. Thereafter, a
more typical trade wind pattern will resume which favors showers
over windward areas. Model/ensembles consensus seems appropriate.

The models show several possible tropical systems developing east
and/or south of the 50th state during the period. Ensembles
generally keep anything the develops in the eastern basin east of
150W through next Wednesday.


Fracasso