Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 829 AM EDT Tue Aug 30 2016 Valid 00Z Wed Aug 31 2016 - 00Z Wed Sep 07 2016 ...Hurricane Madeline to cross south of the Big Island by Wednesday evening... ...Hurricane Lester is currently expected to near the northern islands by Saturday... What is currently a major hurricane, Madeline is moving westward at just under 10 miles per hour. The Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) has this tropical cyclone gradually weakening but will still be a strong category 1/weak category 2 system as it approaches the southern tip of the Big Island. Given the current forecast track, the strongest winds and storm surge will occur north of this path which would significantly impact the southern islands, particularly the Big Island. As this region has abundant topography, expect impressive upslope flow along the windward slopes aiding in prolific rainfall amounts. Based on the latest forecast track, the 06Z GFS and 00Z UKMET solutions are most in line with this thinking, albeit a hair south. Of course any north or south shift in the track would move the area of highest impacts. For the latest information on the forecast and expected rainfall amounts, please go to the CPHC and Hawai'i weather forecast office webpages. The pattern will continue to favor westward propagating tropical cyclones given the expansive 594-dm mid-level ridge in place over the mid-latitudes. Lester, which is also a major hurricane at this time, should see a general decrease in intensity as the tropical cyclone nears the northern Hawai`ian islands by early in the weekend. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast shows a fairly expansive cone of uncertainty at this point so many solutions are possible. As of right now, the forecast track suggests it may graze the northern islands as a weak category 1 hurricane or strong tropical storm, but this is still at least 4 days away. Please view the NHC webpage for more information on this system. Rubin-Oster