Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
825 AM EDT Fri Sep 02 2016

Valid 00Z Sat Sep 03 2016 - 00Z Sat Sep 10 2016

...Major Hurricane Lester approaching the Hawai`ian islands...

...Pattern calms down after the weekend, more traditional trades...

Water Vapor imagery shows a tightly compact hurricane Lester just
upstream of the Hawai`ian Islands this morning. The Central
Pacific Hurricane Center has Hurricane watches in effect for the
majority of the island chain. The majority of the operational
guidance and ensemble data continue to track Lester just north or
clip the state, while gradually weakening over time through the
weekend. Despite the bulk of the 2 inch pws and most moisture
mainly concentrating around Lester, on Sunday and Monday the tail
end of the tropical entity or plume of higher pws swings east to
west across the state for increased rain threat. Stay tuned to the
CPHC for everything concerning Hurricane Lester through the
weekend.

After Lester or mid to late next week, the pattern returns to more
typical regime with a building upper/surface ridge to the north
and east of the islands and consistent trades. However, late
Monday into Tuesday and for the remainder of the work week,
operational global models indicate a possible upper-level weakness
arriving and this could result in an increase in windward showers.


Musher