Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
827 AM EDT Tue Sep 13 2016

Valid 00Z Wed Sep 14 2016 - 00Z Wed Sep 21 2016

Models and ensembles show an elongated weakness (SW to NE) aloft
slowly moving southwestward across the region for the rest of the
week before ridging moves in behind it for the weekend. At the
surface, a tropical wave will continue to move away from the area
in the near term but an overall wet pattern will remain for
several more days. Ensembles are in good agreement on subsiding
the deep moisture by late Saturday and a blend of the GFS and
ECMWF may suffice. Thereafter, prefer to side with the GFS and/or
ensemble means as the ECMWF carries another trailing upper low
over the area from the northeast which has very little ensemble
support. By next Mon-Tue, the remains of Orlene may approach 145W
but would likely interact with the trough to its north. Otherwise,
a more typical trade pattern is forecast for next week with high
pressure stretched across/along 30N.


Fracasso