Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 814 AM EDT Tue Sep 20 2016 Valid 00Z Wed Sep 21 2016 - 00Z Wed Sep 28 2016 Models and ensembles reasonably agree to show a surface ridge settling to the north of the islands in a near moderate trade flow pattern with limited moisture and windward showers into Thursday. Deeper tropical moisture associated with the passage of the remnants of Orlene and from the ITCZ may fuel more widespread showers Friday-next Monday. This occurs as guidance digs a moisture pulling mid-upper level trough to the NW and N of the state. The most current run of the models are showing increased agreement with the strength and timing of the trough and associated cold front, which will stay north of the Islands. This bolsters forecast confidence. Trade winds will decrease as the front approaches. Campbell