Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
807 AM EDT Mon Oct 03 2016

Valid 00Z Tue Oct 04 2016 - 00Z Tue Oct 11 2016

Expect a fairly wet pattern early-mid week, especially over and
near the Big Island.  Guidance agrees that precipitable water
values should reach at least 2.00 inches, and 3-4 standard
deviations above normal, in the vicinity of the Big Island. 
Meanwhile an initial upper level circulation to the northwest of
the state may be replaced by upstream central Pacific energy that
descends toward the islands, with this evolution potentially
supporting a weak surface trough.  Rainfall should trend lighter
by the late week/weekend time frame as PWATs decrease to 1.25-1.50
inches and perhaps briefly lower.  An elongating surface ridge
near 30N latitude, containing one or more individual highs, will
likely support a return to moderate trades and greater windward
focus for any shower activity.  By next Monday guidance disagrees
on the potential arrival of another area of enhanced moisture that
is currently east of 130W with latest GFS/GEFS runs faster or
farther northwestward than the past couple ECMWF runs. 
Yesterday's GFS runs were drier so until the ECMWF trends wetter,
would recommend at least a compromise scenario.

Rausch