Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
817 AM EDT Mon Oct 17 2016

Valid 00Z Tue Oct 18 2016 - 00Z Tue Oct 25 2016

Zonal flow across the central Pacific will gradually amplify into
an eastern Pacific upper trough by the end of the week, with a
cold front crossing the islands by early Friday, followed by 2 or
3 days of stronger northeasterly flow. Model agreement is
generally good, with model spread low to average, which is nearly
the same as this time yesterday. A few ensemble members still show
a small portion of the eastern Pacific upper trough closing off
into a low east of the islands by next Saturday. However, the
probabilities are less then 10 percent with the operational GFS
and ECMWF trending farther east. Humidity will also increase the
next couple days as moisture from the residual tropical wave east
of 150W entrains into the region.

James