Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
757 AM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016

Valid 00Z Mon Oct 24 2016 - 00Z Mon Oct 31 2016

The forecasts today look quite similar to yesterday, as it looks
like a slowly evolving and slowly moving pattern. A strong surface
high pressure ridge north of Hawai'i over the next several days
will keep a breezy trade wind pattern in place over the area. 
Pockets of drier air rotating around the ridge will move across
the islands through  next week.  The dry precipitable water (pw)
anomalies are 1-2 standard deviations below normal by the middle
of the week. The core of the high pressure builds north of the
islands next weekend, keeping conditions stable.  Scattered
windward showers are expected with totals limited due to the
limited available moisture. As the 850 mb high moves to a location
east of due north next weekend or early next week, there are
models which show an increase in moisture with pw values
increasing.  Weak disturbances in the nearly zonal flow could
produce an increase in shower activity.

The models/ensemble means are in better than average agreement,
supporting a consensus based approach to the forecast.

Petersen