Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
803 AM EDT Sun Oct 30 2016

Valid 00Z Mon Oct 31 2016 - 00Z Mon Nov 07 2016

Guidance shows no significant differences in the forecast for the
coming week.  Expect the best rainfall chances from now into
Monday as an upper level weakness drifts from northeast to
southwest across the area while precipitable water values are in
the 1.25-1.50 inch range though beginning to decrease over the
northwestern islands.  After Monday the eastward extension of a
strong ridge to the west-northwest of the islands will sag
southward and PWATs should decline to around one inch and hover
near that value for the rest of the period.  Thus any rainfall
should be lighter and more scattered than over the next couple
days.  Trades will be in the moderate to brisk range from now into
early Wednesday as one high center to the north of the state is
replaced by another high behind a cold front.  From midweek onward
surface ridging north of the state as well as the gradient over
the islands should be a little weaker so trades will likely be
slightly weaker as well.  Around the end of the period, next
Sunday, and beyond there are indications from the models that an
area of enhanced moisture and mid level energy may approach the
islands from the east.  This will merit monitoring as enough
spread exists to make the difference between the moisture reaching
the islands or staying suppressed to the south.

Rausch