Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
730 AM EST Fri Nov 11 2016

Valid 00Z Sat Nov 12 2016 - 00Z Sat Nov 19 2016

The latest models and ensembles still reasonably agree in
perpetuating a mean longwave trough over the eastern Pacific that
forces several periodic cold fronts toward the islands that
gradually weaken and stall over the next week. Deeper moisture and
precipitation should mainly hold to the north of the state, with
more limited energy and activity underneath over the state. Winds
should remain light for much of the next week, with the trades
possibly rebounding by Monday or Tuesday as post-frontal high
pressure builds to the north of the state. The 06 UTC GFS offers a
more amplified trough over the eastern Pacific later next week
than the 00 UTC ECMWF. This GFS solution by then seems more likely
given the strength of upstream ridging up through the
north-central Pacific and Aleutians. This could provide better
support for a more robust trailing frontal push into Hawaii in
about a week.

Schichtel