Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
707 AM EST Mon Jan 23 2017

Valid 00Z Tue Jan 24 2017 - 00Z Tue Jan 31 2017

The pattern over the next week will fluctuate a bit for Hawaii, as
an upper weakness starts over the state. This shear axis will
gradually shift eastward by midweek and the sensible weather will
mainly be gusty trades with perhaps some enhanced shower activity
on the eastern-northeastern edge of each island, especially the
Big Island. Then by mid to late week... a nice 588dm upper ridge
will build across the state from the west to calm winds and keep
any precipitation to a min. However this Friday into the weekend,
a digging upper trough over the center of the pacific will attempt
to reach the state. The global models have a solid handling of
this dynamic system with a strong cold frontal passage through the
entire island chain. It appears shower activity will be isolated
to scattered at best along the immediate frontal zone, as the
weakness initially over the state and well east of the islands
prohibits any anomalous moisture to pool. Overall based on the
guidance with little spread, an average to high confidence is
favored for the next several days to a week.

Musher