Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
726 AM EST Sat Jan 28 2017

Valid 00Z Sun Jan 29 2017 - 00Z Sun Feb 5 2017

A strong surface low tracking generally eastward around 35 degrees
north will track close enough to Hawaii to push a cold front
across the islands by Sunday morning.  This will allow for a
surface high to build southward and dominate the weather pattern
over this domain through at least the middle of the upcoming week.
 An increase in post-frontal northeast trade winds is expected
behind the front before winds begin veering from northeast to
southeast, and decreasing ahead of the next trough approaching
from the northwest by the end of the week.  At this time, it
appears the surface low with this next system should be north of
40 degrees and the front associated with it will likely pass north
of the islands.

In general, the guidance shows very good overall agreement in the
pattern expected near Hawaii and a majority of the northern
Pacific through Wednesday night.  By late next week, the EC mean
shows the surface low that is well to the northeast of Hawaii to
the north of the GEFS mean and the operational ECMWF, and the GEFS
mean becomes more amplified with the front passing north of the
islands towards the end of the forecast period.  The ECMWF is in
decent agreement with the GEFS mean for this front.

Hamrick