Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 728 AM EST Tue Jan 31 2017 Valid 00Z Wed Feb 01 2017 - 00Z Wed Feb 08 2017 Models and ensembles reasonably agree on a quiet/dry pattern for the balance of the week as weak upper ridging passes to the east and an upper low scoots to the east along 35N this weekend. Trades should veer from NE to SE to S to SW ahead of the tail end of the front or shear line but moisture appears to be limited. Light showers, mainly in windward areas, are expected. By next week, multi-center ensemble means show digging troughing via an upper low near 40N that should drive a front into the NW islands later on Monday. Ensembles suggest a good tap of tropical moisture from the ITCZ interacting with a strong dip in the jet stream. Precipitation is forecast to expand over the region next Mon/Tue as ensembles show modest amounts through early next week though the GEFS M-Climate QPF (relative to its reforecast) show 24-h amounts above 99.5% (with some "max" values) which indicate that models may be underdone. Fracasso